The Price of Coffee in 2025: Why does it keep rising and how will it affect the industry?

We spoke with Rodrigo, executive director of Bicafé in Guatemala to better understand the current situation and what we can expect in the coming months. Although it may seem like a victory for producers, soaring export costs and limited financial access make it a double-edged sword.

The coffee market is going through a historic moment. Prices have risen steadily, surpassing barriers not seen in the last 50 years.

A divided market: producers and exporters

‘If you look at it from the producers‘ side, these high prices look like a positive thing,’ Rodrigo says. However, the other side of the coin is the exporters, who face enormous difficulties in accessing capital. The value of a container of coffee has doubled in just one year, and financial institutions do not yet understand the magnitude of financing needed to maintain the same export volumes.

For example, Guatemala exports around 4 million 46 kg bags per year. To maintain that figure in 2025, the industry will need an additional $400 million just to cover the increased costs.

Production in Guatemala: less volume, more quality

Despite the financial challenges, Guatemala continues to produce high-quality coffee. However, harvests are declining: production in 2025 is expected to be 10-15% lower than in 2024. In addition, low altitude coffees, which used to be more affordable, have all but disappeared. Most Guatemalan coffee is now strictly hard altitude, which further increases its market value.

‘Cheap Guatemalan coffee in 2025? Zero,’ says Rodrigo. Quality has its price, and with current costs, roasters will have to adjust their expectations.

Will the market reach $400?

The global coffee market has shown impressive resilience. Although many expect a correction, we have not seen one for more than six months. In fact, experts do not rule out that prices will continue to rise, even exceeding $400 in the coming months.

Specialty coffees, which require perfectly selected cherries, have seen an increase commensurate with the general market. However, roasters face a dilemma: supermarkets and large chains will not accept abrupt price increases, making it difficult to pass these increases on to end consumers.

When will consumer habits change?

One of the big unknowns is at what point consumers will change their habits. In wealthier markets, such as the Nordic countries or parts of Asia, it is possible that demand will be maintained despite the increases. But in regions with more sensitive economies, basic coffees could disappear from coffee shops and supermarkets.

‘Small roasters working with cheaper coffees may not survive,’ Rodrigo warns. On the other hand, those with stable, long-term relationships with producers might have a better chance of holding on.

Recommendations for European roasters

The main recommendation is to stay calm and secure short-term supply. Rodrigo suggests buying in blocks, securing supply on a quarter-by-quarter basis to protect against future rises. Although no one has a crystal ball, the most prudent strategy seems to be to average prices and maintain close relations with producers.

Guatemala continues to produce some of the best coffee in the world, and although times are uncertain, the quality and effort of the producers remains a safe bet for those who value good coffee.